Research on this phenomenon, known as hindsight bias or the 'I-knew-it-all-along-effect', has focused on events that have objective outcomes, like the results of elections and sports games, the correct answers to almanac questions, whether or not people were laid off and so forth. They tend to view what has happened as having been inevitable, and to view it as having appeared relatively inevitable to them even before it happened (Christensen-Szalanski & Willham, 1991 Hawkins & Hastie, 1990). Typically, they tend to exaggerate in hindsight what they knew in foresight (Fischhoff, 1975 Fischhoff & Beyth, 1975). People are often unable to correctly remember their expectations of the outcomes of an event once the outcomes of the event become known. Implications of the results for models of consumer decision making are discussed. The ability to recall prior expectations is reduced most clearly when the personal experiences are salient.
Nevertheless, both between- and within-subjects analyses reveal a consistent hindsight bias. Prior research suggests that under these circumstances a feedforward mechanism from expectations to experiences attenuates the discrepancy between expectation and experiences, hence reducing the likelihood that hindsight bias will occur. In a pretest-posttest design, hindsight bias was studied in the context of an involving, ambiguous consumption experience: attending an academic conference. If hindsight bias occurs, the discrepancy between experiences and remembered expectations is less than the discrepancy between experiences and actual expectations.
Hindsight bias can only occur when a discrepancy exists between the expectations and the experiences on an event. Hindsight bias occurs when the known outcomes of an event affect the memory for the prior expectations about the event. Rami Zwick, Pennsylvania State University, U.S.A. Rik Pieters, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, and Nijenrode University, The Netherlands
HINDSIGHT BIAS IN THE CONTEXT OF A CONSUMPTION EXPERIENCE Bamossy, Provo, UT : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 307-311.Įuropean Advances in Consumer Research VolPages 307-311 Rik Pieters and Rami Zwick (1993) ,"Hindsight Bias in the Context of a Consumption Experience", in E - European Advances in Consumer Research Volume 1, eds.
ABSTRACT - Hindsight bias occurs when the known outcomes of an event affect the memory for the prior expectations about the event.
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